Written October 2026
A November rate rise is back on the table, and the Reserve Bank's number two has stopped hedging about why.
Speaking at the Citi Investment Conference in Sydney on 21 October, RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser declared the inflation outlook “materially worse” than the bank's own forecast, and warned that high inflation risks becoming locked into the economy. Markets moved within hours: the odds of a hike at the 3 November board meeting jumped above 50 per cent.
For mortgage holders, renters and workers watching the jobs market soften, the message is blunt: the cost-of-living squeeze is not ending yet. And when one income no longer stretches as far as it did, a small source of extra cash online becomes a question worth asking.
Why another rate rise is back in the conversation
The latest available headline inflation figure is 4 per cent. That is the annual increase to August, reported by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on 30 September. It remains above the RBA’s target range of 2 to 3 per cent.
Hauser said some people may not be sure inflation will return to target, while some businesses are starting to treat 3 to 3.5 per cent inflation as a “new normal”. He called that “the central banker’s nightmare”.
Markets responded fast. Bloomberg data cited by ABC News business reporter Stephanie Chalmers on 21 October put the chance of a November rate rise at 51 per cent, up from below 20 per cent just a week earlier. UBS chief economist George Tharenou called the comments “hawkish” and is forecasting a hike. Betashares chief economist David Bassanese went further: the RBA, he said, “seems increasingly prepared to risk a recession to get inflation down”.
The RBA board is due to meet on 3 November, with its decision scheduled for Melbourne Cup day. That is still a future decision, not a done deal. The September-quarter CPI release, due before the meeting, will provide another important data point.
For mortgage holders, even the possibility of an increase makes budgeting tighter. Renters are exposed too, through rising housing and living costs. Hauser acknowledged the trade-off plainly: the RBA is “laying shorter-term pain on top of pain” for households already under pressure.
Inflation pressure meets a softer jobs picture
The rate debate is unfolding as the labour market shows signs of easing. The ABS reported that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate reached 4.7 per cent in September. Its 15 October release also recorded about 39,000 fewer employed people and 9,000 more unemployed people than the previous month.
That figure is a snapshot, not a prediction of what will happen to every worker. But it helps explain why many households are thinking about more than interest rates. A cut in hours, a job search that takes longer than expected, or a change in an employer’s plans can make a tight budget feel more fragile.
There is another number in this week's headlines. National Australia Bank announced plans to cut up to 2,500 jobs by mid-2027, as many as 1,500 of them before the end of 2026, about 6 per cent of its workforce. ABC News reported the announcement on 20 October. The bank says customer-facing roles will not be materially affected, but when one of the country's biggest employers starts shedding staff, it settles in people's minds.
No one should assume a recession is inevitable from one week of data. But it is a fair moment to check how comfortable it feels to rely on a single income. Economists have also started using the term “boomcession” to describe economies where growth looks fine on paper but people feel worse off. We looked at what that means for household money in our recent piece on the boomcession. The rate-hike warning adds another layer to that picture.
What a small online income stream can, and can’t, do
For some people, a modest extra income stream may help cover groceries, bills, transport or savings. It might come from a service based on skills they already have, such as writing, tutoring, helping a small business with admin, or selling a useful product online. Many of these are practical work from home ideas, but they still require effort and may take time to find customers.
The move towards small side hustles is happening across age groups, and we covered which side hustles are booming right now in a recent article. The common thread is starting from something you already know how to do, rather than chasing whatever is trending.
A digital offer or affiliate business is another route people explore. Prepared tools and training may reduce the amount of technical setup, but they do not remove the need to understand what is being promoted, reach potential customers and keep learning. Income can be irregular. It is not guaranteed, and “passive income streams” usually involve work, upkeep or investment before and after they begin earning.
A good first step is to choose something that fits your time, budget and experience. Start small. Be cautious about spending money you need for rent, loan repayments or essential bills. Treat an online project as a possible supplement, not a substitute for an emergency fund, a dependable wage or qualified financial advice.
If you want a starting point, our simple guide to making money online without tech skills covers the basics for any beginner. You can also read our coverage of the jobs report and household finances, or explore work-from-home ideas built on skills you already have.
For people thinking ahead to retirement, an extra income source may be one of several retirement income ideas to investigate. It will not suit everyone, and it should not be confused with a reliable investment return. The goal might simply be more flexibility: earning a little while keeping the main job, testing an idea before retirement, or using experience in a new way.
That flexibility can be valuable, but it is not the same as security. Any online opportunity deserves the same careful questions as a job or business: What is included? What could it cost later? How does it make money? What work is expected? Can you afford the time and expense if it earns nothing?
The shortcut some people are taking instead
Some readers will not want to build every piece of an online business themselves, and that is where the A.I Machine offer fits in: partner with a millionaire on his “A.I Machine”, no tech skills needed, and access is free for the first 24 hours.
Results vary with any online venture and no income is guaranteed. Read the terms, check for later charges, and know what happens when the free 24-hour window ends.
A possible November rate rise would not make an online venture automatically safe or successful. But with inflation above target, unemployment higher and a major employer announcing job cuts, it is understandable that people are looking for ways to create a little more breathing room.
The most sensible approach is measured: understand your household budget, protect essential savings, and research any opportunity before committing. A small source of extra cash online may become useful. It should be treated as a possibility to test, not a guaranteed answer to economic uncertainty.